“Escalating front-line clashes, a spiralling arms race, vitriolic rhetoric and a virtual breakdown in peace talks increase the chance Armenia and Azerbaijan will go back to war over Nagorno-Karabakh, with devastating regional consequences”, said the International Crisis Group in its latest policy briefing “Armenia and Azerbaijan: Preventing War”, which highlights the deterioration of the situation in the past year.

“Increased military capabilities on both sides would make a new armed conflict in the South Caucasus far more deadly than the 1992-1994 one that ended with a shaky truce. Neither side would be likely to win easily or quickly”, said ICG in its report.
The document reads that the past twelve months have seen more ceasefire violations across wider areas, employing more sophisticated tactics and weapons. At least 25 persons were killed in 2010 and three soldiers have already been shot dead in 2011. “More has to be done to change a status quo that is deeply damaging to Azerbaijan, whose territory remains occupied and which accommodates large numbers of displaced persons”.

ICG considers that the sides should begin to reverse the dangerous trends by signing a document on basic principles for resolving the conflict peacefully and undertaking confidence building steps to reduce tensions and avert a resumption of fighting. “Russia, as the leading mediator in this conflict, should cease supplying offensive arms and technology to the parties, and others should adhere to the arms embargoes recommended by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and the UN”.

“Lack of progress in the peace talks is increasing the likelihood of an accidental war at any time or an all-out offensive within the next few years”, says Sabine Freizer, Crisis Group’s Europe Program Director. “Russia, the U.S., Turkey and the European Union should make preventing this scenario a high priority”.